Monday, March 28, 2016

It is Silver With The Biggest Upside Potential in 2016 & Beyond

Silver is likely to continue its uptrend in 2016 in beyond with a number of key factors working in the white metals favour



All Time High of $50.00



In March 2011, Silver reached levels close to $50.00 for the first time since 1979 when the hunt brothers cornered the physical silver bullion market.  Today's price being $15.30 more than 300% away from this level and hence a long way off the recent high. The 10 year low is around $10 meaning just a 65% fall in the price would retest these levels.

There looks to be substantial upside price potential, firstly its association with gold means it could run based on it being a monetary metal, or due to heavy industrial usage, new technology patient applications on a mass scale or a combination of investment, medicine, technology and industrial, & jewelry usage making silver a heavily demanded metal due to so many of its properties being both sought after and uncommon in the metal world.

Gold to Silver Ratio


There is a significant upside for the Silver which got as low as 32:1 in 2010, currently in 2016 we are at a 10 year high in the Gold to Silver ratio which historically is also near the highest recorded at 80:1. Silver has a massive potential to increase in this ratio during 2016 and over the course of this precious metals bull run. 



Gold to Silver Mining Ratio 

Typically, 10 ounces of silver are actually mined for every 1 ounce of gold mined. On an annual basis, roughly 900 million ounces of silver are mined overall compared with just 90 million ounces of gold, however potentially The below ground ratio of silver to gold has been estimated at 17 to 1.

The ratio of investment grade gold existing in bullion form is as much as five times that available for silver.

ll the gold ever mined has been estimated at 160,000- 170,000 tons of gold or roughly 5 billion Troy Ounces. A reasonable estimate for the total amount of silver mined is 56 billion Troy Ounces. This makes the “ever mined” ratio roughly 11.2 to 1.

Gold to Silver Historical Ratio *

In 1792, the gold/silver price ratio was fixed by law in the United States at 15:1, which meant that one troy ounce of gold was worth 15 troy ounces of silver; a ratio of 15.5:1 was enacted in France in 1803. The average gold/silver price ratio during the 20th century, however, was 47:1,

The Gold to Silver spot price ratio is now at around 80:1 so historically way above the 1700's, 1800's and 20th century ratios, and given the amount of silver consumed vs gold it seems certain the ratio will come back to resemble earlier times in our history.

Silver is More affordable

As its around 80:1 vs Gold, it is far more affordable to the average person, this alone will be a big volume demand driver as popularity as an investment or any new high usage application such as Solar Panels or Catalytic converters, Silver supply could easily get overwhelmed with any kind or new or significant demand increase.

The Commodities Cycle

Commodities prices have had a rough time of it the last 18 months with many base metals recently bouncing off 10 year lows, this has caused many producers to move into care and maintenance and discontinue operations such as nickel and iron ore mines, as the majority of silver is produced as a by-product from these operations necessarily the supply side of silver had been reduced, this should go a long way to driving the price up as the supply side reduction will mean a higher price point in the futures market as producers out-bid each-other to ensure supply of the essential element.

Joseph Gale

Silver to Gold Ratio Charts - https://www.kitco.com/Gold_Silver_Ratio_Charts/gold-silver-ratio-charts.html

#Silver #SilverNews #SilverGold #1for1 #Galeforcesales #SilverInvestment

* Historical Ratio Data - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_as_an_investment

Gold and Silver Supply Data - http://www.silver-coin-investor.com/Gold-and-Silver-Supply-Will-the-Real-Ratio-Step-Forward.html

Five Years That Changed Silver Forever



Ask any casual observer of the silver market what happened to the metal over the past five years and you’re likely to hear how the price fell from nearly $50 in April 2011 to under $14 at recent lows – a stunning decline of 70%. If you inquire further, you’ll likely hear a number of reasons for the decline, ranging from an oversupply of the metal, a strengthening dollar, falling inflation rates, and the collapse of the commodities markets.



What you will not hear is how a specific development has transpired over the past five years that ensures a coming explosion in the future price of silver beyond the most bullish predictions and optimistic upside targets. You’re also not likely to hear that the stunning decline in the price of silver over the past five years was a deliberate feature of an unusually bullish development that promises to change forever the future price landscape.

While I have closely researched the silver market for more than 30 years, uncovering more original findings (including silver’s price manipulation) than anyone, I fully admit that I did not immediately see the monumental change that began to occur five years ago. This astonishing development that had begun in 2011 did not come clear to me until late 2013.

I discovered that the largest U.S. bank, JPMorgan Chase, began to accumulate massive amounts of physical silver starting in 2011 and has continued that accumulation to this day. All told, I believe JPMorgan has acquired somewhere between 400 and 500 million ounces, the largest privately held stockpile of silver in history.

What this means is that the future price of silver is now destined to move far higher in price than anyone can imagine. I wasn’t looking for something to come along that would supersede my already ultra-bullish outlook on silver, but that is what occurred. That’s because the obvious motive JPMorgan has whenever it acquires a large investment position is to profit on that position to the greatest degree possible. And since JPMorgan is now in position to profit enormously when silver prices soar, that means anyone holding silver will profit as well.

How did JPMorgan come to acquire hundreds of millions of ounces of physical silver? It was a circuitous route, beginning in the financial crisis of 2008 when JPMorgan took over a failing Bear Stearns, then the largest short seller in COMEX gold and silver futures contracts. JPMorgan stepped smoothly into Bear Stearns’ role as the main silver and gold price manipulator and proceeded to drive the price of silver from $21 in March 2008 to under $9 through massive short sales on the COMEX. In the years that followed, JPMorgan continued its new role as the largest short seller in COMEX silver and reaped billions of dollars in ongoing profits by shorting silver on price rallies and buying back those short positions after it rigged the prices lower.

With manipulative intent and practice, JPMorgan continued to make illicit profits on the short side of COMEX silver until late 2010. Then a developing physical shortage in silver drove prices to almost $50 by the end of April 2011. JPMorgan was not prepared for the developing physical shortage and the price run up nearly crippled the bank. That’s when it dawned on JPM that it was on the wrong side (the short side) of silver and the bank resolved to get on the right side – the long side. But first, JPMorgan had to get off the short side.

JPM did this by causing silver futures prices to plummet with the full consent of the COMEX and government regulators at the CFTC, a process that has continued to this day. JPM regained control of silver prices on May 1, 2011 and by driving prices sharply lower killed off the developing investment demand that was causing the physical shortage. But while JPMorgan regained control of silver prices on the COMEX, it could not buy as many futures contracts as it desired without causing prices to soar – it needed another angle. That other angle was for the bank to begin to buy physical silver while it continued to sell short COMEX paper futures contracts. This way, JPMorgan could have its cake and eat it too – continuing to profit on paper short sales while acquiring physical silver at the depressed prices it had created. I labeled JPMorgan’s actions as the perfect crime in a public article in December 2014.

JPMorgan behaved illegally in manipulating prices lower while accumulating all the physical silver it could. However, there is no limitation on what any entity can hold in a physical commodity position. Limitations exist (loosely enforced) on what traders can hold in futures and other derivatives, but no such limitations apply to physical positions. This cleared the way for JPMorgan to hold as much physical silver as it could. Since the price of COMEX silver determines the price for silver throughout the world, this put JPMorgan in the catbird’s seat, by enabling it to depress the COMEX price and then scooping up physical silver in prodigious quantities and at ridiculously depressed prices.

As far as the forms of physical silver that JPMorgan has acquired over the past five years, the simple answer is in any form that could be acquired in size. Most of the silver that JPMorgan acquired was in the form of 1,000 ounce bars, the industry standard for silver and the kind deliverable on COMEX futures and held in the worlds silver ETFs and other investment vehicles. JPMorgan has secured hundreds of millions of ounces from the big silver ETF, SLV, and in deliveries against COMEX futures contracts, some of it held in JPM’s own COMEX warehouse, which opened for business in May 2011 and is now the largest COMEX silver warehouse (confirming my timeline). Their warehouse now holds 70 million ounces and is their most visible holding. Harder to see is the 100 million ounces they likely have in their London warehouse where they moved out 100 million ounces of other people’s silver to make room for their own in 2012.

But JPMorgan has also bought silver in the form of American Silver Eagles and Canadian Maple Leafs to the tune of 150 million ounces over the past five years, quickly re-melting the coins into 1,000 ounces bars because it would be impossible to sell so many coins in coin form. In fact, the curious riddle of record sales of Silver Eagles and Maple Leafs over the past five years coupled with bona fide reports of weak retail sales of these coins was an important clue that someone big was buying many of the coins, roughly 50% of all such coins sold.

When I say I wasn’t looking to uncover the most bullish development ever in silver that is an understatement. But as an analyst, I look to the data first and foremost. Not only has that data tipped me off to what JPMorgan has been up to, the continuing flow of public data confirm my conclusion daily. Everything from COMEX silver warehouse movement, deliveries against futures contracts, changes in the big silver ETF, SLV, sales of silver coins from the U.S. and Royal Canadian Mints point to the massive accumulation of silver by JPMorgan. They are positioned to make $100 billion or more in a runaway silver market. They will make $1 billion on a $2 rise in silver.

The very last thing I would be interested in at this stage of my life, is to come up with some wacky premise that threatened to undermine many of my previous findings. I studiously avoid anything that would damage a reputation I have spent decades constructing. On the other hand, if I have discovered the most shockingly bullish silver development ever, how could I not proclaim it far and wide?

I have discovered that JPMorgan has accumulated more physical silver than any private entity in history and I don’t care if great numbers of observers come to agree with me or not. I will openly discuss this with anyone who has questions, but most importantly I would remind you that if I am correct in my assertion anyone who aligns themselves with what JPMorgan has done and buys silver will most likely reap financial rewards of truly amazing proportion.

Source: Ted Butler -March 24, 2016, For subscription info please go to www.butlerresearch.com

#Silver #SilverNews #SilverInvestment #Bullion #GoldSilver #Gold #1for1 #TedButler #JosephGale

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Silver Polishes Up As Alternative Safe Haven to Gold



Silver, or poor man's gold as it is known, is largely overlooked as a safe haven asset, but it is now hitting a purple patch and attracting investors.


"Silver right now is really undervalued," said management consultant and investor, Tung Nguyen.

"If you look at the long term historical trends, at the value between gold and silver, the research I did it normally tracks between 30 and 60 and now it's in the 80s. So silver right now is a bargain."

Eighteen months ago Mr Nguyen liquidated all his assets and, after reading dozens of books, invested more than half his money into gold and silver.

As a first generation Vietnamese immigrant, Tung Nguyen said financial security is important to his family.

"We were really worried about where the economy was heading," said Mr Nguyen.

"We felt that Australia was really heavily exposed to China, which is slowing down, and what that meant was the share prices and the property prices would have to come down.

"And so I was trying to find something that would provide us with a bit of a hedge in case those asset classes came down."

Tung Nguyen buys his silver and gold bars at ABC Bullion.

The company's chief economist Jordan Eliseo said demand from retail investors - particularly self-managed super funds - is enjoying a big upswing.

"We have seen precious metal turnover go up by a factor of six since the GFC (global financial crisis)," he said.

"In terms of dollar values sold very much around 50:50 around gold and silver - both assets are increasingly popular amongst investors looking for a safe haven asset in their portfolios."

Silver Price Resurgence

After dragging along at $US4 or $US5 an ounce through most of the 1990s, silver hit highs of almost $US49 in 2011.

Like gold, it then went on a general slide downwards, until this year. It has now bounced back up to $US15.60.

Brokers use the spot price to buy on behalf of retailers, but a benchmark price on the London Bullion Market - set by an electronic auction mechanism - is used by large traders, such as miners and jewellers, to settle silver products and derivatives contracts.

It was thrown into disarray in January when the benchmark price was set far below the spot and futures price, leading participants to claim the system is broken.

"The problem with the setting of prices in London is that there's not the depth of market makers there," said BetaShares chief economist David Bassanese.

"So you've had the price formally set on occasion falling well outside the range on futures markets for example."

Most of the purchases come from industrial fabricators, where global annual demand is 600 million ounces of silver.

Silver is used in electronics, including mobile phones, in the solar industry, and for producing plastics and detergents.

"Industrial demand has stayed incredibly strong because of silver's qualities as a metal, and businesses finding applications they can utilise silver in." said Mr Eliseo.

"Prices have risen, but it is such a small component they haven't rushed to find replacement metals, unlike gold which is almost exclusively a monetary metal and used for investment purposes.

"Silver will be wearing that industrial and monetary metal status for many years to come."

Tung Nguyen certainly hopes so as he is holding on to his stockpiles for now.

"Extremely happy," he said. "My son's also an investor, he's 14 years old and he's sitting on a small stockpile of silver as well."

A long play for such a young investor.


KEYWORDS - silver, silver news, silver price, silver investment, silver gold, silver bullion, silver coins, silver investment news

Sunday, March 6, 2016

Snap Silver Up - This is when Weak and Impatient Hands Sell Down

Exactly like gold and great materials stocks, Silver (and gold) has been range-bound for so long now there is a segment of the physical silver (and gold) stacker community that are taking this opportunity to exit or to sell down and take (very small) profits.

Snap Silver Up -This is when Weak and Impatient Hands Sell Down

This is to be expected and cited commonly as weak hands being shaken off the bull.. a great metaphor! This has the impact of keeping Silver range-bound or trading only temporarily at these levels as more silver enters the market capping the price.. once these weak hands have sold off into strong hands and silver is locked away deep in a vault we will move up to higher levels again.. great opportunity to hold and make really nice profits or increase equity.

Silver Price - sustained move to the upside in 2016, Will in Continue?

Silver has been on the rise during 2016 and given last year a similar trend played out before capitulating many are taking this opportunity to sell down as there is always a chance this will again be the case and taking profit is a favourable in a market where many commodities near the bottom of a 10 year price spectrum.

For those accumulating at the moment.. bargains abound as physical silver is plentiful for the time being and you will be unlikely to secure silver so close to spot in the future as people will be increasingly reluctant to part with there best performing asset, also as news of Silver  potent recovery spreads market participation will increase with additional demand only increasing silvers price - As the great Peter Schiff says.. "Don't Look a Gift Horse in the Mouth"

The Silver to Gold ratio is trading near its all time high (currently 80 Ounces of Silver for 1 Ounce of Gold) so i would expect Silver to reverse and starting reducing the ration back towards 20:1 - We will likely see a retest of $50 US before this bull run plays out.

By Joseph Gale

silver, physical silver, silver gold, silver stackers, silver gold bullion, silver bullion, silver coins, silver stackers, silver news, silver investment