Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Iron Ore Won't Rebound Any Time Soon

Why Iron Ore Won't Rebound Any Time Soon

Economists may teach that low prices and declining demand encourage producers to decrease supply, but the iron ore industry appears to have skipped class that day.

"The combination of a further increase in global iron ore supply this year and only subdued demand growth suggests iron ore prices will continue to drift lower," said Caroline Bain, an analyst at Capital Economics, in a note Monday. She forecasts iron ore prices at $60 a tonne by year-end, with risks to the downside. Iron ore touched a more than five-year low Monday of around $63.30 a tonne, although some forward contracts are already pricing it under $60.



Output has picked up over the past few years, encouraged by expectations China demand would continue to post strong growth and by low production costs in Australia and Brazil, she said. She noted Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton put their average production cost in Pilbara, where most of Australia's iron-ore production is located, at around $25 a tonne, compared with 2010-13 average market prices at $145 a tonne. Even at current prices, these producers are still profitable, Bain noted. Australia is the world's second-largest iron-ore producer after China.
Despite 2014's around 50 percent decline in iron ore prices, the big four producers -- Vale (Sao Paulo Stock Exchange: VALE'A-BR), Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue (ASX:FMG-AU) - continue to expand production and other companies are also bringing projects on line this year, she said, forecasting Australian production will rise 6 percent this year, although that's down from 2014's 20 percent rise.
Don't count on China
At the same time, despite China producers' higher costs and lower ore grades, production there isn't likely to see much slowdown, especially as many steel plants have "vertically integrated" operations, owning mines nearby, Bain said. Closures on the mainland are likely to focus on less efficient operations, leading to a leaner and meaner industry there, she said.
"The multinational producers will be only partially successful in their bid to oust higher-cost producers globally and oversupply will continue to weigh on prices," she said. At the same time, China's iron ore usage will stagnate at best, hit by a combination of high inventories and lower demand to use the metal as part of financing deals, she said.
Goldman Sachs also expects iron ore producers won't be able to count on China for growth, noting it's become a mature market.
"The decade-long love affair between China and iron ore is cooling. Chinese steel consumption has increased to unsustainable levels and is bound to decline," it said in a note Friday. "Significant overinvestment to date will ensure that the market is well supplied."
It expects a "long war of attrition" will be needed to balance the market, cutting its long-term price forecast by 25 percent to $60 a tonne.
The Oil Effect
Falling oil prices are also set to weigh on iron ore prices, as they result in "substantial cost reductions", and commodity prices are likely to fall to meet these new lower levels, Citigroup said in a note Monday.
It's also concerned about oil-fueled deflationary pressures affecting commodity demand. 
"Falling prices increase the real cost of debt repayments and could see increased defaults. This not only affects direct commodity demand, but also drives lower inventories and threatens commodity financing trade," it said, noting that falling commodity prices also leave companies with little incentive to build up inventories.
In a note earlier this month, the bank cut its 2015 iron ore price forecast to $58 a tonne from $65

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Interest in Oil (as indicated through search volume) is Abnormally High at the Moment Due to Recent Price Decline




Interest in Oil (as indicated through search volume) is Abnormally High at the Moment Due to Recent Price Decline. Looking at the google trends chart above, we can see Interest in Oil (as indicated through search volume) is abnormally high at the moment.

 This data tells us more people are searching for oil using google, likely correlation to investment therefore we can assume that people are looking to invest in oil and are researching or looking to purchase shares and futures commodities contracts online.

 Last time oil price was this low four years ago, price quickly rebounded and went in access of $150 US per barrel.



Gold looks to feature more prominently also the last few months, the Swiss Gold Referendum, Swiss Depeg (de-ceiling) and repatriation of gold by European central banks lately have all been popular news story's on-line.

Joseph Gale

Global Mints See Strong Silver Sales For A Second Year

Global Mints See Strong Silver Sales For A Second Year


Silver bullion coin sales had another strong year in 2014, according to data from the U.S. Mint, the Royal Canadian Mint and the Perth Mint.

For the U.S. Mint, 2014 was a new record year for silver bullion demand as they announced on Dec. 24 that they had sold out of 2014 denominated American Eagle Silver Coins. The mint set a new personal record, selling more than 44 million coins.

Although the data is not complete for the Canadian mint, accord to their quarterly reports, silver sales in first nine-months of 2014 outpaced its sales during the same timeframe compared to 2013.

According to the reports, the Canadian mint sold 20.8 million ounces of silver as of September, up compared to 20.7 million ounces in 2013. The Canadian mint said in its 2013 annual report, released in January, it had sold 28.2 million ounces of silver – record levels, so far.


However, the Perth Mint’s silver sales were lower in 2014 compared to last year. Sales data provided by the Australian-based mint, showed that almost 7.09 million ounces of silver were sold between January and November, down compared to 7.799 million ounces of silver sold in 2013 during the same time period.

January was the busiest month for the Australian-based mint as it sold more than 912,000 ounces of silver during the month. Its slowest month was April as more than 361,000 ounces of silver were sold.

In an email response to Kitco News, the Perth Mint said that it won’t have December’s sales data available until January.

Demand for silver has been strong as silver prices have dropped significantly during the year. This year Comex Silver futures opened 2014 at $19.440 an ounce and closed Wednesday at $15.680, a decline of more than 19% on the year.

Although silver sales at all three mints have been strong, gold sales have been lackluster compared to 2013.

According to data from the U.S. Mint, as of Dec. 26, a total of 702,000 ounces of gold – from American Eagle and American Buffalo coins – have been sold this year, down almost 36% compared to 1.095 million ounces sold in 2013.

In the first nine months of the year the Canadian mint reported that it had sold a total of 474,000 ounces of gold, down significantly compared to 876,000 ounces sold during the same time period in 2014. In its annual report, the Canadian mint said that it sold more than 1.14 million ounces in 2013.

Finally, the Australia-based mint reported that it sold more than 475,000 ounces of gold between January and November, down from almost 611,000 ounces gold in all of 2013.
View Source

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Economics Theory: Gold Will Appreciate 30% in Line with Swiss Franc, As Inflation Plays out in Fiat currencies





Gold Will Appreciate 30% in Line with Swiss Franc, As Inflation Plays out in Fiat currencies





Gold Will Appreciate 30% in Line with Swiss Franc, As Inflation Plays out in Fiat currencies - the Swiss Franc represents gold and a monetary standard that is more prudent than the rest of the western central banks which have been engaging in quantitative easing incrementally in an increasing fashion.



We will see the result of easy money, which has recently been bought to light by the Swiss (who quit the game mid hand exposing the rest of the players playing with extra cards in the deck!) flow into gold as more easy money chases finite money like gold and silver, the price will rise accordingly.



The Swiss Franc is 30% more scarce than the euro (Symbolically - or as interpreted by the free market), so in turn will gold be - albeit in a delayed fashion.



See more at: http://economicstheory.blogspot.com.au/2015/01/gold-will-appreciate-30-in-line-with.html#sthash.wxspY8tV.dpuf

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Silver News - Catch up on Previous Years Silver News at Galeforcesales.com

 Catch up on Previous Years Silver News at Galeforcesales.com 

Serving the Internet #SilverNews Since 2009!



Silver News http://galeforcesales.com/Silver-News.php

2009 Silver News http://galeforcesales.com/Silver-News-2009.php
2010 Silver News http://galeforcesales.com/Silver-News-2010.php
2011 Silver News http://galeforcesales.com/Silver-News-2011.php
2012 Silver News http://galeforcesales.com/Silver-News-2012.php
2013 Silver News http://galeforcesales.com/Silver-News-2013.php
2014 Silver News http://galeforcesales.com/Silver-News-2014.php

Silver, Catch up on Previous Years Silver News at Galeforcesales.com

Speculators Looking for Havens from Slowing Growth are Piling Into Silver

Speculators Looking for Havens from Slowing Growth are Piling Into Silver

Silver headed for a bull market in its best start to a year in more than three decades, supported by speculation that slowing global economic growth will spur demand for havens.

Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by the metal have posted three straight weekly gains, while U.S government data show money managers raised their net-bullish wagers to the highest since August. An ounce of gold bought 71.4 ounces of silver on Thursday, compared with an average of about 58 over the past decade, signaling the white metal is inexpensive relative to gold.

Investors are returning to precious metals amid concern that U.S. growth won’t be enough to offset weakness in other countries. A collapse in oil prices has boosted the appeal of gold amid the threat of economy-damaging deflation, and prices this week topped $1,300 an ounce for the first time since August. Policy makers at a European Central Bank meeting Jan. 22 are expected to announce new stimulus measures.

“The drumbeat of stimulus across the globe is bringing people to silver and gold,” Dan Denbow, a portfolio manager at the $1.1 billion USAA Precious Metals & Minerals Fund in San Antonio, said in a telephone interview. “Also, the ratio between gold and silver got very, very inexpensive, indicating that silver had some catching up to do.”

January Rally

Silver for immediate delivery climbed 0.7 percent to close at $18.127 on Jan. 21, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. A settlement at $18.4064 would leave the metal up 20 percent from the recent closing low of $15.3387 in November, meeting the common definition of a bull market. Prices are up 15 percent this month, the best start to a year since 1983. It traded at $18.0197 at 2:24 p.m. in Singapore on Thursday.

Gold for immediate delivery fell 0.4 percent to $1,287.43 an ounce on Thursday, after advancing a day earlier to $1,305.25, the highest price since Aug. 15.

“Silver will benefit from all the stimulus measures and rate cuts being announced aggressively by the central banks,” Caroline Bain, a commodities economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said in a telephone interview. “Also, the stimulus measures will at some point boost usage of the metal.” Bain said she expects silver to rise to $20 by the end of the year.

Consumption is forecast to grow to almost 680 million ounces by 2018, up 142 million ounces from 2013, as demand in industries ranging from appliances to solar energy will rise, CRU Consulting said in a report on December 10, 2014

Physical Market

A tighter physical market will provide some support to prices this year, Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Hong Kong-based Precious Metals Insights Ltd., said at a conference in London on Jan. 21.

The consulting firm expects global silver supply from mine production and scrapping to fall 2 percent in 2015, and physical demand for uses including industry, photography and jewelry to grow 2 percent. The physical silver-market surplus will shrink by 40 million ounces to 211 million ounces in 2015, according to Precious Metals Insights.

“Silver is rising along with gold as a hedge against uncertainties,” George Gero, a New York-based precious-metal strategist at RBC Capital Markets LLC, said in a telephone interview. “Also, some funds are betting on future growth with so much money being pumped into the system.”

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

BHP Ramps Up Iron Ore, Petroleum Production Despite Price Slumps

BHP Ramps Up Iron Ore, Petroleum Production Despite Price Slumps

BHP Billiton says it has raised group production by 9 per cent in the December half year, despite slumping prices for its key commodities.

For the 2014 December quarter BHP Billiton lifted iron ore output by 16 per cent compared with the same period a year earlier to 56.4 million tonnes.

That compares with a 12 per cent rise in Rio Tinto's output over the same period, announced yesterday, although Rio remains the bigger producer.

Both companies have lifted output over the past year despite a dramatic slump in benchmark iron ore spot prices in China from around $US135 a tonne in early 2014 to less than $US70 a tonne at the end of last year.

The benchmark Tianjin spot price was at $US67.40 yesterday.

BHP Billiton says cost cuts, some of which are related to the scale associated with extra capacity, are offsetting some of the price declines.

"We are reducing costs and improving both operating and capital productivity across the group faster than originally planned," said the company's chief executive Andrew Mackenzie.

"These improvements will help mitigate some of the impact of lower commodity prices and we remain alert to opportunities to further increase free cash flow."

While iron ore prices have fallen fast, crude oil prices have fallen faster still.

Despite this, BHP Billiton's December quarter petroleum production was 10 per cent higher than the same period a year earlier, although it was 6 per cent down on the September quarter of 2014.

Mr Mackenzie said that BHP Billiton is already cutting back its planned US petroleum investments in response to oil prices which have more than halved from their 2014 peaks.

"We have moved quickly in response to lower prices and will reduce the number of rigs we operate in our onshore US business by approximately 40 per cent by the end of this financial year," he noted in the report.

"Our ongoing shale investment program will remain focused on our liquids-rich Black Hawk acreage. However, we will keep this activity under review and make further changes if we believe defer ring development will create more value than near-term production."

Elsewhere in its portfolio of mines, BHP revealed that metallurgical coal production was up 17 per cent compared to the December quarter a year before.

Energy coal used in power stations saw a 5 per cent rise in output.

Copper production fell 4 per cent in the December quarter compared with a year earlier, alumina was 3 per cent higher, aluminium 15 per cent down and nickel 10 per cent lower.

Despite weak prospects for any price recovery in the short term, BHP Billiton said it is on track to increase petroleum and copper output by 5 per cent this financial year, iron ore by 11 per cent and steel making metallurgical coal by 4 per cent.

Sunday, January 18, 2015

Spreading Debt and Death - Monopoly Silver Shield Bullion Round

Spreading Debt and Death - Monopoly Silver Shield Bullion Round




Spreading Debt and Death is the second coin in the "Rise and Fall of the Banksters" sub-series in the Silver Shield Series. 
This design tackles a reality familiar to any student of history. The power of war is not the destruction it causes or the armies it raises but rather the debt it creates. By pushing and creating the conditions for one, banksters are able to create and control through the other. The Spreading Debt and Death Bankster round captures this idea perfectly.
The obverse features a design by Heidi Wastweet that shows a skeletonized tycoon in a top hat, a merchant of death as it were, and the wares that he peddles. By creating war as illustrated by the machine gun in his left, the bankster is able to create debt and servitude as illustrated by the shackles in his left hand. 
The money trailing behind him is the vehicle used to bring about the "heyday" of the bankster's power as illustrated by the "prancing" attitude and smile that are both clearly visible. He is surrounded by the engraved words "Spreading Debt and Death". 
The reverse shows the revised Silver Shield logo with the trivium in the center encircled by the words "Silver Shield 1 Troy ounce 2014 .999 Pure AG" surrounded by 47 bullets.
This design shows one of the craftiest truths of the modern world and features the banksters at the height of their power, war profiteering. 

Power through destruction and debt servitude. This is the second design in the four part miniseries. Each coin will only be available for a limited time. Get yours now!

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Economics Theory: Will China Pull a 'Switzerland' on the U.S. Dollar?

Peter Schiff Poses and attempts to answer the question, Will China Pull a "Switzerland" on the U.S. Dollar?



 





#PeterSchiff  #China  #Switzerland  #centralbanks  #gold  #economics  #monetary  #policy




2015 1oz Silver Year of the Sheep Bullion Round Silver Shield

2015 1oz Silver Year of the Sheep Bullion Round Silver Shield





The 2015 Silver Shield Year of the Sheep is the first coin in the new Silver Shield Lunar Series!
This unique design stands out from all other Lunar Series on the market and keeps true to the Silver Shield spirit.


The Year of the Sheep features a visceral image of two wolves eating an ignorant and docile sheep.
This symbolizes the cunning men that prey upon the naive and indoctrinated masses.


The 2015 Year of the Sheep is accented with the Chinese symbol for sheep.


The final detail is a lonely sheep dog howling a distant warning, which symbolizes those that are aware and prepared.
Brilliant Uncirculated strike or a 1 ounce Proof-Like strike with an air-tite, display case and a unique red and gold numbered Certificate of Authenticity.
Specifications:


1 troy oz .999 fine BU Silver


Orders in multiples of 20 coins ship in original mint tube.
Air tight size: 40mm

Swiss Central Bank Defends Franc Move Despite Turbulence



Switzerland’s central bank on Saturday stood by its shock decision to let the franc soar, insisting the subsequent turbulence rocking global markets and the Swiss economy since the move would eventually subside.






“This was not an easy decision... (but) we are convinced it is the right one,” Swiss central bank chief Thomas Jordan said in an interview published in Swiss dailies Le Temps and NZZ on Saturday.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB), he said, had determined that by continuing to artificially hold down the franc, “it risked losing control of its monetary policy in the long term.” Jordan’s comments came after the bank stunned markets Thursday with its decision to abandon the minimum rate of 1.20 francs against the euro that it had been defending for more than three years.

This Swiss currency has since gained around 20 per cent against other currencies and is currently trading at around parity with the euro.

The soaring franc caused panic on global markets, bankrupted foreign exchange traders as far away as New Zealand and was seen as a significant threat to Switzerland’s export-dependent economy.

The Swiss stock exchange’s main SMI index has plunged more than 14pc since Thursday’s announcement.

Swiss banking giant UBS said the SNB’s decision would deliver a severe blow to economic growth, slashing its forecast to just 0.5pc expansion this year from its previous estimate of 1.8pc.

The yield on Swiss 10-year bonds on Friday meanwhile entered negative territory for the first time, slipping to -0.031pc, meaning lenders will now have to pay to lend money to the country.

THREATENING ENTIRE SWISS SYSTEM: “The strong franc is threatening the entire Swiss system,” the Tribune de Geneve (TdG) daily lamented on Saturday, adding: “The future looks dark.”

Jordan said Switzerland’s central bankers, who unanimously agreed to scrap their long-drawn efforts to hold down the value of the franc, “were aware that this decision could have a major impact on markets.”

“The markets should gradually stabilise,” he said, admitting though that “it could take time.”

The SNB had been defending the exchange rate floor since September 2011 in an effort to protect the country’s vital export and tourism industries, even buying massive quantities of foreign currencies to do so.

The rate was introduced as the eurozone crisis sent investors scurrying to the safe haven currency. More recently, the Russian rouble crisis put renewed pressure on the franc.

Jordan insisted the efforts to rein in the franc were no longer justified, insisting the Swiss economy was in a much better place than it had been when the cap was introduced.

“We gave the Swiss economy time to adapt to the new situation. A period of three years is not negligible,” he said, stressing that “the currency cap from the beginning was supposed to be an exceptional and temporary measure.”

“It was always meant to be abandoned.”

SNB NOT ALL-POWERFUL: Now that the cap was gone, Jordan acknowledged that “following this decision, the economic situation in Switzerland is more difficult.”

But, he pointed out, “SNB cannot fulfil all wishes with its monetary policy. It is not all-powerful.”

His comments were unlikely to win over Swiss businesses bracing to see exports plunge and shoppers at home flood across to neighbouring eurozone countries for cheaper goods.

“Making products in Switzerland and selling them abroad is currently the worst possible scenario,” Syz analyst Jerome Schupp told TDG.

Batman 75th Anniversary 2oz Silver Proof $5 Coin - New Zealand Mint




ABOUT THE DESIGN

2014 is the 75th Anniversary of BATMAN, and to commemorate the event, the Island of Niue has authorized a series of legal tender, precious metal collectible coins featuring the Caped Crusader. 
Whatever you know him as, wherever you know him from - the blockbuster movies, TV shows, video games, cartoons, or millions of comics - BATMAN is proof you don’t need superpowers to be a DC SUPER HERO.


REVERSE DESIGN

Each coin features Batman in action, engraved against a polished background. 

OBVERSE DESIGN

Each coin features the Ian Rank-Broadley effigy of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.

BONUS FEATURES 

Each spectacular design comes in a Collectible limited edition 4-color tin and a line-up of one-of-a-kind bonus features including: 
A Collectible cloisonne pin for 75 Years of Batman
A Collectible laser etched metal, sequentially numbered Certificate of Authenticity for each coin, including a facsimile signature of FRANK MILLER
An AR Gameboard
Augmented Reality App for mobile devices and tablets that launches from the coin - see an animated 3-D image of Batman and take a "selfie" with Batman!
Technical Specifications:
Metal999 Fine Silver
FinishProof
EdgeMilled
Denomination$5
Year of Issue2014
Mintage7,500
Weight2 Troy oz
Notice: due to a production hold up this coin will now ship from January 5th 2015

Pegasus Sterling Silver Vintage Cufflinks Gold to Rainbow Toned

Have just acquired these Pegasus Sterling Silver Vintage Cufflinks with fantastic Gold to Rainbow toning mainly on just the one cufflink face.

















Sterling Silver Vintage Cufflinks
Markings - "FM 78" "Sterling"

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Short Term Silver bottom?




Has Silver hit a Short Term bottom? 

Gold and silver mining stocks will likely bottom before the price of the underlying metal. Are mining shares telling us that a bottom is near?


#silver #silverbullion #silvermining #bullion #miningstocks #commodities